Top 20 Craft Brewers Sell 2/3 of Segment; 18 of 20 Up in 2010; Newbies to 100K Club

A bunch of craft brewers have already reported 2010 shipments and we've made estimates to fill out picture for top 20 in table below. Lotsa double-digit gainers in 2010, especially among brewers #11-20. And plenty of triple-digit gains since 2005, again, primarily among smaller players. Our figures suggest top 20 sell about 2/3 of all craft brew, top 10 have about 55 share. For top 20 that's up just slightly over last 5 yrs, for top 10 about the same. Boston hasn't reported a final figure yet, but guided to 12% growth in Dec 2010 statement. Boston has held about 20 share of craft for many years. Gotta note figure in table includes Twisted Tea, an increasingly significant number, several hundred thousand bbls. If you remove Tea, Boston share dips below 20, its 2010 growth trend not quite as strong and segment closer to 10 mil bbls. No matter how you cut the numbers, Boston's ability to grow volume and maintain share in face of continuing onslaught of competitors remains impressive feat. Sierra Nevada has lagged segment growth over last 5 yrs, but its 8-9% gains in 2009 and 2010 not too shabby. It remains only other truly national craft player and its growth accelerated last couple of years. New Belgium pulled away from Craft Brewers Alliance in 2010 with another double-digit gain. Picked up nearly 300K bbls over last 5 yrs, 100K more than anyone else but Boston. Expansion to Del-DC-Md in 2011 should fuel more NBB growth this yr. We include CBA; it hasn't reported for 2010 yet so number likely to change. CBA hovering near 600K bbls, we figure. On pro forma basis, it has lagged segment trend since 2005. Shiner and Magic Hat/Pyramid each up mid-single digits in 2010, about 40% since 2005. As reported, Magic Hat up double-digits in 2010, Pyramid down 5%. Deschutes is only other craft brewer over 200K bbls. Up 9% in 2010 and, like Magic Hat/Pyramid and Shiner, +40% for 5 yrs. Matt Brewing was one of only 2 top craft players to lose volume in 2010. We estimate 5% decline, and Matt shipments about same as 5 yrs ago. (For those who may have seen our top 10 craft brewers in parent pub beer marketer's INSIGHTS without Matt: we have added Matt as craft brewer even as it still sells non-craft brands.) Bell's jumped a few spots and grabbed #9 rank in 2010 with 23% gain, and biggest % gain among top 10 over last 5 yrs. Harpoon just nicked Boulevard for #10 spot with 14.5% gain in 2010 and outperformed over last 5 yrs too. Goose Island and Dogfish cracked 120K bbls. Goose Island grew 13.5%. Dogfish Head starred, not only on cable tv: up 25%. Over last 5 yrs, Goose more than doubled, Dogfish more than quadrupled. Alaskan was the other big craft brewer to lose volume in 2010; -7%. And it posted just 11% gain since 2005, when it was still among top 10. Long Trail (which completed Otter Creek acquisition in Jan 2010) up 14%     and tied with Alaskan. Next 5 all passed 100K mark in 2010. Lagunitas got biggest % and volume gain, jumpin' from 77K bbls to 106K. Stone, Abita, Brooklyn and Full Sail each up double-digits, and each at least doubled over last 5 yrs. Stone tripled. Gotta note that tho 100K bbls is milestone of sort, it's still just 1 share of craft. And players below top 20 -- over 1500 of 'em -- create long, long tail indeed: over 1/3 of all craft beer.

Top 20 Craft Brewers Sell 2/3 of Segment; 18 of 20 Up in 2010; Newbies to 100K Club